While this is by no means scientific, it might provide some Leaf fans with a sense of relief, as many would consider a deal of $13 million good value compared to other rumoured contracts.
However, the simulation doesn't account for extenuating factors, such as the fact that the Salary Cap will be raised next year. With still 1 year left on his contract, Matthews has the option to wait and see just how much more money the Leafs might have to give him.